Posts Tagged ‘Brexit’

Crafting Confidence in a Challenging World

On the eve of the Prime Minister sending the letter that invokes Article 50 to the Council of the European Union, I had the good fortune of spending time in the City of London with current students, alumni, and staff of the University of Nottingham for a networking event. Entitled ‘Nottingham in the City’ we welcomed over 100 guests to the magnificent offices of Berenberg for an evening of talks and mutually beneficial introductions.

My own role was to welcome our guests on behalf of the University and to deliver a short lecture on leadership and ‘knowing people’. I was delighted to revisit many of the themes that I have developed in the past on ‘crafting confidence’ in young people and using analytical frameworks developed at Glowinkowski International.

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I talked primarily about how all organisations are characterised by the complex interactions between people’s underlying predispositions, behaviours, and styles of leadership and engagement, which in turn relate to the climate of the organisation and ultimately its performance. These insights were illustrated through my own version of ‘cerebral prestidigitation’ (or mind magic) working with members of the audience. I predicted a choice of one guest simply by knowing her name (Darinka), her place of birth (Macedonia) and what she had for breakfast (an omelette). I then asked four volunteers to imagine in their minds the four different types of leadership engagement that we had been discussing and I divined their thoughts with 100% accuracy.

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But for me, the real exciting part of the evening was learning how these young people, full of enthusiasm, are embracing the change that they see all around them. I met graduates of law, economics, business, politics, psychology and sociology, all of whom valued not only the core content of what they studied, but the many soft skills that have made them adaptable to the challenging work environments in which they find themselves. Many had started out in one direction and then learned where their real interests were and changed course accordingly.

There evening also included an inspiring talk from business entrepreneur Claire Bicknell from Catena Business Networking, who presented a compelling vision of how company to company and person to person networking benefits all that engage in such interactions. She is growing her business from its base in Nottingham to the whole of the UK with an ever increasing network of companies, organisations, individuals and events.

The deep history of the City was with is last night (Berenberg dates from 1590), but it was combined with youthful and hopeful vigour, which I hope will carry us through the uncharted waters of BREXIT and that real opportunities will be seized in these turbulent times.

SUBVERSION: Politics, Magic and Jazz

 

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This week has seen a fascinating array of my own public engagement. My week began with my lecture on Race, Rights and Justice in the Age of Brexit for the national Being Human Fetsival. Held in the fabulous Galleries of Justice in Notttingham, I set out my thoughts and reflections on the many challenges during the age of what I have called BREXITRUMP. My remarks urged us all to remain mindful of our common humanity and the shared values of dignity, respect, non-discrimination, equality, and inclusion.

The current turn in politics is undermining years of struggle for rights and justice, the legal codification of these struggles, and the many advances that have been achieved in the popular understandings of identity and difference. The rhetoric of Farage and Trump shares many of the same features: a simplification and dichotomisation of society into ‘us’ and ‘them’ in ways that have proved highly divisive, hurtful, and regressive. It has also invited arguments online and offline that appear more vitriolic than ever before.

With these developments at the forefront of our minds, the staging this week of my show SUBVERSION seemed more fitting than first imagined when I conceived of it. The show celebrates the common thread that joins the disparate worlds of politics, magic and jazz; worlds that have been my world since the early 1970s. Each in their own way has moments that have challenged the status quo and moved history forward. I explore these connections through the medium of performance magic, mind reading, and mentalism. Our topics have covered the ideas and achievements of over 50 of my favourite ‘subversives’; our understanding of the notion of free will; Hobbesian thought as expressed in Leviathan; the philosophy and art of surrealism; Said’s notion of Orientalism; the ‘veil of ignorance’; the value of predictions; and my own blend of psychic perfect pitch.

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The show has been well received and well-reviewed, while the proceeds are being used for the Life Cycle Campaign to raise funds for research into the early detection of breast cancer, something that has touched my family and I am certain many other families here and abroad. The Djanogly Theatre at Lakeside Arts provided the perfect setting, while the sound and light crew could not be more professional and supportive.

In the middle of this performance schedule, I had the honour and pleasure of performing to a group of students from the University of Nottingham for a new film project on Academic Magic. They were from all over the world and studying degree courses in chemistry, maths, biology, business, law, finance, psychology, and medicine. After the filming they were full of questions and theories about how I managed to know what they had chosen, thought, or wrote down. It was a wonderful afternoon with the youth of today.

2016 has indeed been an extraordinary year with the death of so many icons of my youth, and significant political developments that will have huge and long lasting consequences. All eyes are on the election in France with the surge in support for Marine Le Pen, the election in Germany, as Angela Merkel seeks an historic 4th term as Chancellor, and in the UK, the Government’s plan for Brexit; the phasing, contours and consequences of which still remain shrouded in uncertainty.

I for one, will remain vigilant, continue to engage, and work hard to defend what I think are the many important principles and rights that have been secured through so many years of struggle.

The Brexit Dip and the Struggle for Certainty

In Democracy and the Market, Adam Przeworski argues that transitional countries experience a significant downturn in economic performance in the short term and then as democracy takes root, economic performance returns in ways that support the new democracy.

Watching events here in the UK since the EU referendum on 23 June, I couldn’t help feeling that the UK now looks very much like one of  Przeworski’s transitional countries and is experiencing precisely the same kind of economic downturn as a result of the vote to leave the EU.

The figure below represents this dynamic. The y-axis represents economic performance (E), which would have remained relatively constant over time (t) had there not been an EU referendum. On 23 June, however, there was a referendum, which saw an economic pick up in the run up to the vote (a signal from the markets that Remain was the likely outcome), and a subsequent slowdown once the result of Leave became official on the morning of the 24th.

Brexit DipWe now find ourselves in a significant ‘Brexit dip’ in economic performance (B). The pound against the dollar has dropped to levels not seen in thirty years (click HERE to track its value relative to other currencies), the FTSE 100 and, more importantly, the FTSE 250 have dropped precipitously, S & P dropped the UK from its AAA rating to an AA rating, while leaders of business surveyed by the Institute of Directors (IoD) are fairly pessimistic about the immediate future of the British economy. So much so, that many report a stall in investment, a freeze on hiring, and in some cases, redundancies.

In addition to the economic downturn, we have seen both main political parties in crisis, as the struggle for power ensues. The Prime Minister has resigned, the shadow cabinet and junior shadow ministers have resigned, and there are fresh calls for Jeremy Corbyn to step down as leader of the Labour Party. The Leave campaign leaders are scrambling around to clarify what they actually mean by Brexit, the Remain campaign leaders are looking at legal loopholes and procedures that might reverse the decision, or at least limit its most negative consequences, and the Scots are exploring their own independence given their overwhelming vote to Remain.

The figure also shows a number of dimensions and possible scenarios for what could happen next. The dark line labelled B1 denotes a Brexit dip and long term recovery, which may see the UK return to economic performance levels that are higher than those before the referendum. Line B2 is a less severe Brexit dip that could be achieved through continued assurances from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and the Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osbourne.  B3 is a more severe Brexit dip if such overtures fail to calm market nerves and the UK economy slips further into recession. A Breixt dip is  inevitable as many experts before the referendum pointed out, and any recovery carries risk and uncertainty with an eventual landing point that could vary substantially.

Both the depth and breadth of the Brexit dip rest on the ability of the UK political system to produce new leadership, trigger an Article 50 withdrawal from the EU, and establish an orderly timeline for how and under what conditions the UK will continue to work with the EU without being in the EU. Boris Johnson, the favourite for being the next Prime Minister signalled today that he would want the UK to continue its close cooperation with the EU, but did not spell out exactly what that might look like.

If Brexit really is going to happen (something the Scots are contesting), then it is incumbent on the new leadership to act quickly and decisively to bring certainty and confidence back to the UK economy. In seeking to prevent further disintegration, EU leaders will negotiate hard with the UK in setting conditions for access to the common market (e.g. national payments to the EU and free movement of labour). In preventing a total backlash from the Leave supporters, the new leadership in the UK will seek to maximise benefit from cooperation with the EU without having to incur too many costs.

One possible outcome for the future is the irony of the UK having to pay as much as it pays now and to accept only a minor reduction in migration, while at the same time having to give up its place at the EU table. The Leave campaign made a meal out of the crumbling castle of the EU and lambasted the Remain campaign’s insistence that the UK would be stronger in Europe, and yet the outcome of any Article 50 negotiations may well see the UK maintaining payments, accepting migrants, and losing influence. Meanwhile, one of the main societal group who voted for Leave will be very unlikely to see any real benefit from their vote.

References:

Adam Przeworski (1991) Democracy and the Market, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.