The Brexit Dip and the Struggle for Certainty

In Democracy and the Market, Adam Przeworski argues that transitional countries experience a significant downturn in economic performance in the short term and then as democracy takes root, economic performance returns in ways that support the new democracy.

Watching events here in the UK since the EU referendum on 23 June, I couldn’t help feeling that the UK now looks very much like one of  Przeworski’s transitional countries and is experiencing precisely the same kind of economic downturn as a result of the vote to leave the EU.

The figure below represents this dynamic. The y-axis represents economic performance (E), which would have remained relatively constant over time (t) had there not been an EU referendum. On 23 June, however, there was a referendum, which saw an economic pick up in the run up to the vote (a signal from the markets that Remain was the likely outcome), and a subsequent slowdown once the result of Leave became official on the morning of the 24th.

Brexit DipWe now find ourselves in a significant ‘Brexit dip’ in economic performance (B). The pound against the dollar has dropped to levels not seen in thirty years (click HERE to track its value relative to other currencies), the FTSE 100 and, more importantly, the FTSE 250 have dropped precipitously, S & P dropped the UK from its AAA rating to an AA rating, while leaders of business surveyed by the Institute of Directors (IoD) are fairly pessimistic about the immediate future of the British economy. So much so, that many report a stall in investment, a freeze on hiring, and in some cases, redundancies.

In addition to the economic downturn, we have seen both main political parties in crisis, as the struggle for power ensues. The Prime Minister has resigned, the shadow cabinet and junior shadow ministers have resigned, and there are fresh calls for Jeremy Corbyn to step down as leader of the Labour Party. The Leave campaign leaders are scrambling around to clarify what they actually mean by Brexit, the Remain campaign leaders are looking at legal loopholes and procedures that might reverse the decision, or at least limit its most negative consequences, and the Scots are exploring their own independence given their overwhelming vote to Remain.

The figure also shows a number of dimensions and possible scenarios for what could happen next. The dark line labelled B1 denotes a Brexit dip and long term recovery, which may see the UK return to economic performance levels that are higher than those before the referendum. Line B2 is a less severe Brexit dip that could be achieved through continued assurances from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and the Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osbourne.  B3 is a more severe Brexit dip if such overtures fail to calm market nerves and the UK economy slips further into recession. A Breixt dip is  inevitable as many experts before the referendum pointed out, and any recovery carries risk and uncertainty with an eventual landing point that could vary substantially.

Both the depth and breadth of the Brexit dip rest on the ability of the UK political system to produce new leadership, trigger an Article 50 withdrawal from the EU, and establish an orderly timeline for how and under what conditions the UK will continue to work with the EU without being in the EU. Boris Johnson, the favourite for being the next Prime Minister signalled today that he would want the UK to continue its close cooperation with the EU, but did not spell out exactly what that might look like.

If Brexit really is going to happen (something the Scots are contesting), then it is incumbent on the new leadership to act quickly and decisively to bring certainty and confidence back to the UK economy. In seeking to prevent further disintegration, EU leaders will negotiate hard with the UK in setting conditions for access to the common market (e.g. national payments to the EU and free movement of labour). In preventing a total backlash from the Leave supporters, the new leadership in the UK will seek to maximise benefit from cooperation with the EU without having to incur too many costs.

One possible outcome for the future is the irony of the UK having to pay as much as it pays now and to accept only a minor reduction in migration, while at the same time having to give up its place at the EU table. The Leave campaign made a meal out of the crumbling castle of the EU and lambasted the Remain campaign’s insistence that the UK would be stronger in Europe, and yet the outcome of any Article 50 negotiations may well see the UK maintaining payments, accepting migrants, and losing influence. Meanwhile, one of the main societal group who voted for Leave will be very unlikely to see any real benefit from their vote.

References:

Adam Przeworski (1991) Democracy and the Market, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

 

The House

 

the house

A marble runs its random path.

Floorboards creak with spirit feet.

Agnes and Eloise sent their wrath;

the logs, lathe and plaster last.

 

Nordic design conquers the past.

Smooth wood polished with care.

Sits a leather and Van der Rohe chair,

soft pile carpets add a modern flair.

 

Games, drinks; a father in the know.

Three innocent boys stand in a row.

A stopping clock brings shocked surprise.

Exposed for their sheepish childhood lies.

 

Groaning pipes warm the nest.

Bitches Brew disrupts our rest.

Angel’s hair, soft bed for our nativity.

Colourful illumination; wooden tranquility.

 

The porch swing; a safe place for

our thunderous summer days;

Sitting, laughing, loving.

Time unending.

 

Dining windows plugged for winter.

A blue linen sea spread for dinner.

Candles floating. Food enjoyed.

Events shared. The youngest annoyed.

 

Nocturnal antics, escapes well planned.

The CB radio dutifully manned.

Zeppelin and Floyd in the smallest room.

Crash sounds, death, always loom.

 

The connection, smokehouse, trains forbade.

Study space, a thesis made.

Tools in order, hard to borrow.

The loft above, rarely ventured,

Eaves with dead flies for spiders’ morrow.

 

A sturdy structure like a fort.

Caretakers for but a time.

History is bigger, and life is short.

This comforting vessel, all mine.

 

© 2016 Todd Landman. All rights reserved.

Magic Professor: magicians tap into what it means to be human

Todd Landman, University of Nottingham

British magician Paul Daniels, who died this week aged 77, is most famously known for his extraordinary cup and ball routine, where a simple ball appears, disappears, and reappears inside a small cup.

The magical effect one experiences in watching this routine is not possible without a person having a fully developed sense of what Jean Piaget calls “object permanence”. During their first years of life children develop an understanding that objects exist and events occur in the world that are independent of their actions. Close a door on a cat and you probably know that it’s still in the next room. For Daniels’ trick to work, a person needs to know that the ball itself ought to be in the cup even though it cannot be seen. The magic occurs when the cup is lifted and the ball is no longer there.

I know this all too well, because I am also a magician. Fortunately, like Daniels, I perform for audiences that are a touch older than two, the age after which most children have developed the sense of object permanence. Magic depends on understanding an audience’s psychology. I tend to limit my shows to people over the age of eight, since the kind of magic I really like is mentalism, or the art of using the tools of the conjurer combined with many other fields of knowledge to create the illusion of mind reading, telepathy, clairvoyance, uncanny synchronicity and other inexplicable phenomena.

Famous mentalists have included Maurice Fogel, Chan Canasta, David Berglas, Kreskin, Banachek, and Derren Brown – all of whom in one way or another create a wonderful sense of ambiguity about whether they posses true psychic ability or not.

Over the years this type of magic has attracted a lot of interest, tending to be couched in psychological terms. But I like to explore its possibilities in philosophical terms. Magic taps into the most fundamental questions of what it is to be human: questions philosophers have been asking for millenia.

Cogito ergo decipio

After a period of solitary rumination and extreme doubt, the French philosopher René Descartes famously declared “cogito ergo sum”; or “I think therefore I am”. The mere act of thinking, Descartes argued, establishes proof of our existence. This small utterance led to a revolution in our thinking about the separation between the mind and the body (known as dualism), the power of empirical observation and the notion that we have control over the material world in ways that are separate from our minds.

As an academic magician, such considerations naturally inform my performance. I like to use magic to explore and break down this Cartesian proposition and other philosophical notions, thereby disrupting my audience’s sense of reality.

For me, Descartes’s cogito ergo sum, becomes cogito ergo decipio, or “I think therefore I deceive”. I dedicate a large amount of thinking to how I might deceive my audiences into thinking I have a set of powers that lie outside the realm of scientific rational explanation, while at the same time addressing some of our more fundamental philosophical questions about knowledge, language, mathematics, politics and even human rights.

Decipio.
Todd Landman, Author provided

For example, Plato’s thought experiment The Ring of Gyges asks us to consider that if we were given the opportunity to wear a ring that makes us invisible, would we engage in “unjust acts”? With this premise in play, my participants join me on stage and are given a choice (unknown to me, as my back is turned) to either take a gold ring from a box, put it on their finger and hide it from view; or to leave the ring in the box. The taking of the ring is symbolic of Plato’s notion of an unjust act, where the moral choice of the participant is theirs and theirs alone. Turning to face the participant, I divine their choice and allow the experiment to be repeated. Regardless of their choice, it is always known to me (no, I’m not going to explain how).

This kind of effect demonstrates the essence of my approach to academic magic: there’s the demonstration of me inexplicably knowing their choice but it also raises a larger set of questions around our own temptations to commit “unjust acts”. Would you take the ring? It moves magic beyond a clever puzzle to a thought-provoking proposition that lasts beyond the moment of amazement.

And telepathy?

How people attempt to explain magical feats also provides philosophical insight. In one revealing experiment with a selection of drama students at the University of Huddersfield, I gave a series of magical performances and then compared their reactions to what they experienced. Their explanations were highly varied, ranging from ideas around trust, subliminal suggestion and religious identification – all of which were incorrect technically, but fascinating from a larger philosophical point of view.

Plausible explanations for magic and mind-reading feats raise larger epistemological questions about the world (“how we know what we know”) – questions that philosophers of science have been asking for centuries. Do we know what we know through observation? Through intuition? Through reason and rational deduction? How do we know if we are wrong in making statements about the world we perceive?

While the history and philosophy of science have debated these kinds of questions for centuries, magicians continue to disrupt our sense of reality, question the certainty of our knowledge, and in my own case, let us ponder the very rules by which we may live what Aristotle referred to as the good life; understood not as material wealth or superficial happiness, but the holistic and fulsome happiness that derives from doing the right thing under the right circumstances.

The Conversation

Todd Landman, Professor of Political Science, Pro Vice Chancellor of the Social Sciences, University of Nottingham

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the

Reflections at 50

IMG_0148

Today is a remarkable day. I am 50 and very pleased with it as well. I have my health, three beautiful children and my lovely wife. I live in a civilised country with a deep history, a well-tended countryside, a great sense of humour, and a health system that works most of the time.

I was only supposed to come here for a year back in 1993 … oh well…

Turning 50 is a moment to pause and take stock. Five decades. Born into the Cold War at a time when an LED calculator created intense joy and curiosity, and now writing this short blog on a laptop connected to the Internet through eduroam wifi. And as I get older, the simpler my tastes become: a comfortable place to sit, really good coffee, and the fastest broadband in the world.

Despite my birth year, I was not a child of the 60s, but a child of the 70s. Long hair, bell-bottom jeans, blue suede Puma sneakers, a silk shirt with horses on it, a jean coat, and a beat up trombone. I loved our family home in Hemlock Hollow and when not outside running through the woods or swimming in the pond, I was in my room learning and practicing magic; a life-long pursuit that continues to fascinate and enchant me.

The Nixon resignation and our extraction from the Vietnam War were my earliest memories of a decade that saw some of the best rock music ever recorded (although I did not quite appreciate that at the time).

We huddled in my brother’s bedroom listening to Queen (an imported vinyl LP my dad brought back from Amsterdam), Bachman Turner Overdrive, Led Zeppelin, Pink Floyd, the Moody Blues, the Doobie Brothers, and Lynyrd Skynyrd.

All that changed in the late 1970s when I discovered punk and New Wave music from the UK. Gone were the self-indulgent dirges; replaced by quick tempo tunes with cockney accents, the ‘nutty’ sound, and political lyrics that spoke of a rebellious generation taking on the establishment.

My brother’s bedroom was replaced by my friend’s back room den with 100s of imported LPs from bands like the Angelic Upstarts, the Cure, U2, the Specials, Madness, the Selector, the Sex Pistols, Joe Jackson, and the Stranglers, which were complemented by surf punk from California like the Dead Kennedys, Agent Orange, and so many others. We learned to slam dance and survive the mosh pit. We wore vintage clothes, pointy shoes, and pork pie hats.

Throughout these years, I was also seduced by jazz, from traditional to hard bop, to jazz rock fusion. The house was full of great music from Herbie Hancock, Miles Davis, Blood Sweat and Tears, the Modern Jazz Quartet and countless others. I had a long battle learning to play the trombone and a continuing passion to learn how to play jazz, as well as many stints with many different bands: concert band, big band, pit orchestras, marching band, blues bands, and small jazz combos.

The 1980s were a time of deep learning and reacting against Reagan’s America. High School (studies, band, and swimming) in Central Pennsylvania gave way to University life at Penn in the middle of the end of the Cold War. I read the New York Times daily and followed all the foreign policy stories from the Iran-Contra scandal to democratic transitions in Latin America, to the Falklands/Malvinas, to anti-apartheid protests around the world. I wrote my final year dissertation on US Foreign Policy in Chile during the Allende period, abandoned my plans to go to law school, and followed my dream to study Latin America.

Three years in the late 80s in Georgetown included intense study of Latin America, exposure to liberation theology, time in Brazil to hone my Portuguese and follow the first democratic presidential election since 1961, and a short stint at the World Bank before setting off west to pursue a PhD in political science.

The 1990s saw me for a short spell in Boulder, Colorado, where the long hair made a brief return and where I met an English Professor, who, over a glass of single malt invited me to come to the UK. With visions of ivy-covered halls and greens full of students debating philosophy, I landed at the University of Essex (cough); itself an intellectually stimulating place with a radical past. One project turned into another until I found myself traveling the world to over 39 countries working on human rights projects, teaching students from places that were forbidden in my youth like Tajikistan to people who were part of Reagan’s Evil Empire. The Cold War was over, but new forms of tyranny, oppression and conflict were upon us.

Y2K never happened, but 9/11 did, which like the Kennedy Assassination for the generation before me, has been etched on my mind since that fateful day. En route to an appointment in town, I heard an early news report about the attack, while later in the day I found myself standing very still in front of a TV in a clothing store In Colchester UK watching the towers come down; towers I visited as kid on a special trip to New York with my father to pick up my Dutch grandfather who had arrived at JFK airport.

The ‘noughties’ were spent teaching, writing, traveling, playing jazz and performing magic. My three real passions in life remain politics, magic and jazz. In their own way, these passions all share a subversive streak, where big disruptions come from those who foment new ideas (we can change history), question orthodoxy (why not flatten the fifth note in a diatonic scale?), and unsettle our sense of reality (is it deduction, deception, or something more?).

50 seemed a long way away as a kid, where I often yearned to be older, but as Ferris says, life moves pretty fast. I agree, but it also moves slow enough to savour the journey, and this journey thus far has been fantastic.

So, as I savour this particular day, happy birthday to me, and many thanks to all my friends and family who have made the journey thus far unforgettable.

In honour of this day, I share with you a new poem that I call The Pond. I hope you like it.

The Pond

Duckweed. 
Kelp carpet of the hollow’s waters.
Warm, spongy soft, pungent.
A fecund sprawl, a natural feast.
But not for us, at least.
 
Snappers float, the surface barely broken.
Eyeing prey with patient contemplation.
Noses out, dangling legs, tails but a token.
Hard rake at the ready.
Just in case we get too close.
Jaws clenched, set and steady.
 
The drain runs warm and constant.
Mesh snags unwanted detritus.
Muskrats poke their way,
like miners in a vein.
But once, up my arm,
a scurrying one came.
 
Foam floats made pink by the sun,
like crabs in a Chesapeake bucket.
Boards bolted on, rope and brick,
an anchor for our dock.
Jumping, splashing, flying.
Hours disappear, no need for a clock.
 
Sunfish caught with simple grass.
Tadpoles dance with excitement.
Fires in winter, while we skate.
Making the figure eight.
Puck, crack, chair, slide.
A bauble hat, mittens with fur inside. 
Warmth, security, a father’s embrace.
 
Plunge in summer. 
His arms hold tight; we struggle.
Spluttering, flailing, panicking.
Face down, bubbles out.
Sink or swim, you decide.
I swam.
 © 2016 Todd Landman all rights reserved.

Upcoming public lecture!

Norms, Values, Morality: The Politics of Human Rights

Landman

Please join the Research Priority Area in Rights and Justice at the University of Nottingham for a special lecture by Professor Todd Landman, a world-leading expert on human rights. He will discuss the evolution of the international human rights regime, different kinds of human rights measures, and systematic ways in which to map, explain, and understand the variation in human rights abuse around the world.

Professor Landman is the Pro Vice Chancellor for the Social Sciences faculty at the University of Nottingham and internationally renowned for his work on the measurement and analysis of human rights. His many books include Human Rights and Democracy: The Precarious Triumph of Ideals (2013), Measuring Human Rights (2009), Assessing the Quality of Democracy (2008), Studying Human Rights (2006), Protecting Human Rights (2005), and Citizenship Rights and Social Movements (1997, 2000). He has worked with a wide range of international governmental and non-governmental organisations, including the Inter-European Consortium for Human Rights, the United Nations Development Programme, the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, the UK Department for International Development, and Amnesty International. He writes for and appears in The Guardian, The Conversation, openGlobalRights, Al Jazeera, and other media outlets.

For more information, CLICK HERE

Super Tuesday: Clinton and Trump lift off as rivals straggle behind

Todd Landman, University of Nottingham

The results of “Super Tuesday”, when a clutch of US states voted to choose the two parties’ nominees, have seriously ironed out both the Republican and Democratic primary campaigns. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton scored major gains, and their rivals are now fully on the ropes. It may be that the campaigns are finally stabilising after a truly wild start to the primaries.

Donald Trump has bounced back remarkably from his loss in Iowa. He went into Super Tuesday having won New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina; he’s also seen off experienced Republican candidates including onetime frontrunner Jeb Bush and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie – who has made the shocking move of endorsing Trump, to widespread disgust.

That left Trump with three principal rivals: Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and John Kasich. All three headed into Super Tuesday in hopes of a major turnaround. Instead, they got routed. While Cruz won his home state of Texas (as expected) and netted Oklahoma as well, other delegate-rich states on the Republican side were called for Trump as soon as the polls closed, including Virginia, Tennessee, Massachusetts, Georgia, Alabama, and Arkansas.

Meanwhile, Marco Rubio, who has made a show of being the Republican mainstream’s best hope of stopping Trump, walked away with only one win, in Minnesota.

It’s happening.
EPA/Ryan Stone

Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, confirmed that she has fully hit her stride after a rocky start to the primaries. She effectively tied Bernie Sanders in Iowa and lost big to him in New Hampshire, but then beat him convincingly in Nevada before trouncing him by an astonishing 47% in South Carolina – where, crucially, she won 90% of the black vote. That didn’t bode well for Sanders, whose campaign has been a barnstorming attack on income inequality and the deep divisions in American society – and on Super Tuesday, Clinton ultimately followed it with a huge sweep.

Georgia and Virginia were called for her as soon as the first polls closed (and tiny American Samoa soon followed). The delegate-rich southern states then quickly began falling into her column by big margins, and then a win in the New England state of Massachusetts with 116 delegates. Sanders won his small home state of Vermont and picked up Oklahoma, Colorado and Minnesota, but Clinton’s strength was simply too great across the rest of the states. Sanders is now clearly far behind, with very few hopes of recovery.

So what now?

Ready for Hillary

Now that Trump’s macho populism has all but steamrolled Cruz’s evangelical conservatism and Rubio’s moderation, and with Sanders’ democratic socialism fading against Clinton’s pragmatic realism, this has fast started to become a contest between Trump and Clinton. And in that contest, the presidency is now Clinton’s to lose.

Liftoff.
EPA/Joe Skipper

This would be true whoever was running. The other contenders on both sides simply cannot match her appeal: Sanders is too narrowly leftist for the general electorate, while Cruz and perhaps even Rubio would be too far right.

Trump, meanwhile, polls well among disaffected low income white Americans, which works well for that particular rump of the Republican Party, but much to the disappointment of its elite, who have so far been unable to stop the Trump machine – even as they desperately remind everyone that he’s simply too much of a risk, particularly on matters of national security and foreign policy.

Clinton, by contrast, polls especially well among middle-aged and older women, the poor, and middle class Americans, as well as minority communities. This is a winning coalition, one made up of many of the same groups that favoured President Obama in 2008 and 2012. These demographics have continued to swell their ranks, and in the absence of a major event (say, an utterly damning revelation in the drip feed of Clinton’s state department emails), the odds are ever in Clinton’s favour.

Even leaving aside the toxic, chaotic nature of the campaign so far, the prospect of a Trump presidency – or even a Republican one – seems very remote indeed.

The Conversation

Todd Landman, Professor of Political Science, Pro Vice Chancellor of the Social Sciences, University of Nottingham

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.

Monumental Music

This holiday season I have had some time to listen to new music and I have been particularly impressed with two new offerings from 2015: Kamasi Washington’s The Epic and Brad Mehldau’s 10 Years Solo Live. These are both monumental offerings, showing total commitment to the art form and total immersion into the depths of modern music.

Just before Christmas, I had a long drive from Ipswich to Sheffield and decided to listen to all of The Epic, which is 174 minutes long. This album is a most welcome addition to my collection and returns the art form to its days of most impact. Kamasi Washington has assembled a great line up of instruments, including trumpet, trombone, sax, rhythm section typical of modern jazz ensembles, but he adds an additional drummer, additional bass player, additional piano player, strings, and a choir, as well as lead singer. This is an Ellington-esque line up and conjures up references Charles Mingus and Dave Holland (who I was honoured to see at a concert in Coimbra, Portugal few years ago).

He also uses a ‘saloon’ piano, which gives many of the songs a honky tonk flavour. Many songs also include a Hammond organ, which sounds haunting at points and wonderful in others. There are moments in the album when you are confronted with a wall of sound with so many textures and layers to the music that carry you away into the deep history of jazz, its origins in oppression and its evolution throughout the 20th century. This history is brought to high relief with the inclusion of spoken word directed at the politics of race relations in the US evocative of Gil Scott heron.

The songs bring surprise, atmosphere, emotion, and grit to the listening experience, and there are reminders of John Coltrane, Miles Davis, Robin Eubanks, Carla Bley, Henri Texier, and many others. The whole album is worth listening to all the way through in one sitting. This is a concept and story in three parts. Once you reach the end, you will be truly transformed and elevated by what you hear. It is rich, moving, meaningful and simply breath taking.

My wife gave me the new Brad Mehldau collection of solo piano, recorded live and consisting of four CDs. I have been a fan for a number of years now, and always liked his ability to take a pop song like Radiohead’s Exit Music for a Film and then deconstruct it into a jazz recording and an adept sense of melody, harmony, and rhythm. This new offering does not disappoint. For example, he covers Nirvana’s Smells Like Teen Spirit in ways that are so imaginative. More traditionally, he has the audacity to cover My Favourite Things (the 26 minute Coltrane rendition from his Live at Montreux recording has been the version for so many years), where he succeeds in showing there is life in the song beyond Coltrane. He deconstructs, flips, subverts and toys with the harmony, melody and tempo in so many different ways and with such passion that you get lost in its utter brilliance.

These two recordings are simply monumental in their musical majesty and there celebration of all that is good about music, particularly jazz, which provides structure within which so much variety is made possible. Playing with and challenging that structure, while invoking the history of an art from that has always sought to subvert makes these absolutely essential to any serious jazz fan’s collection.

Listen, take the journey, and lose yourself.

I did.

An Evening of Mindful Magic

 MM-01-2016

I am absolutely delighted to have crafted a new show entitled An Evening of Mindful Magic.

As an Academic Magician, I see magic as useful medium and means of communication for us to contemplate life’s bigger questions.

I have spent my entire life studying people and books, and have had the opportunity to travel around the world to discover new insights, lesser-known subjects, and in some cases, arcane secrets about the world.

I think of mindfulness in three ways.

First, I am keen that we all remain mindful of what we say and how that might affect those with whom we interact. It is often quite extraordinary how we remain unaware of the impact of what we say to people. Remaining mindful and developing empathy for those with whom we interact is a great first step to wisdom. I hope through the show that this notion is evident.

Second, my own demonstrations on display during the show are ‘of the mind’, which is to say that which you will perceive I am doing is a function of all five of your senses, but some of what you experience may actually feel like a sixth sense. Everything we experience is processed in our minds, and if we imagine we are all part of the ‘shared community of human minds’ as renowned neuroscientist Raymond Tallis believes we are, then perhaps we can enter that community together at least for the passing moments of the show.

Third, there is much in the press and public domain these days about ‘mindfulness’ or that state of the mind that allows us to live in the ‘present moment’; to not stand in the middle of the ‘rush hour’ of life, but rather to take a position on the pavement, detach ourselves from the distraction of the traffic in our lives, and find that inner calm. Being ‘ever present’ is something that holds great surprise across many moments in the show.

We will explore many themes together that touch on many topics currently at the forefront of the public’s mind. I rather like to see these topics as questions rather than anything approaching solid answers.

  • How much do we know, and how confident are we in knowing it?
  • What is hidden in plain sight?
  • Why do we use the words we use and how do we know what they mean?
  • Is there a mathematical world ‘out there’ waiting o be discovered?
  • How do we make deductions and why does that process matter?
  • How do we know what is right and what is wrong?
  • What memories from your life are important and do your remember them accurately?

These and other questions are explored in a highly interactive, dynamic and energetic show with many surprises and many inexplicable demonstrations that will certainly leave you agog!

The show has its debut at the Djanogly Theatre, Lakeside Arts at the University of Nottingham on 20 and 21 January 2016. For this show, all the proceeds will be donated to alzheimer’s research; an issue area that is very close to my heart.

So, prepare to be mesmerised, mindfully, of course!

Full details can be found here:

MM-02-2016

An Evening of Mindful Magic

The Rights Track – Why podcasts are a great way to raise awareness about human rights

the-rights-track-twitter-cover

 

‘Podcasts embody what is arguably the essential promise of the Internet: a means for surprising, revealing, and above all ennobling encounters with people, things, and ideas we didn’t know.’

Jonah Weiner, blog for Slate ‘Toward a critical theory of podcasting’.

~

For the last 25 years I have been working on human rights problems. I have applied theories and methods from the discipline of political science to empirical analyses that have involved single countries, small groups of countries, and all the countries in the world. This work has been underpinned by a commitment to making the best inferences possible with the evidence that has been collected.

I have published widely on how and why comparative methods can and should be applied to the study of human rights. I have examined empirical relationships between the struggle for citizenship rights in authoritarian Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Spain; between the international law of human rights and the protection of human rights; and between different forms of inequality and the violation of certain sets of human rights. My work is now focussed on the ways in which human rights are framed and how that framing affects our readiness to find culpability of alleged perpetrators.

Throughout my pursuit of this research I have had the opportunity to travel to 38 different countries to participate in conferences, workshops, seminars, and training activities where I have worked with a wide range of local, national, and international stakeholders from governments, international non-governmental organisations, inter-governmental organisations, academic institutions, and private sector companies. This work has led to my involvement in a wide network of individuals who are dedicated to producing sound evidence on human rights.

They apply empirical theories and methods to well crafted research questions at different levels of analysis with the intent of making the world a better place. They measure and compare human rights practice; they interview individuals and groups about human rights experiences; they test hypotheses about important relationships between human rights and other explanatory factors; and they try to make their findings relevant and salient to policy makers and practitioners working in the human rights and broader international community.

The research and policy outputs of this work often comes in the form of the written word: articles, books, and reports that set out the aims and objectives of the research, the specification of the research questions, the review and articulation of the relevant theories and literature, the specification of hypotheses, the presentation of data, methods and analysis, and a discussion of the implications of these findings for the advance of human rights. These outputs are a vital part of the pool of knowledge that is being created by human rights scholars and practitioners; however, as a means of communication, they can still remain quite limited in their ability to reach key audiences.

Nuffield-logo

To address this limitation, I am joined by a great team to bring you an exciting new venture we call The Rights Track. With generous funding from the Nuffield Foundation, The Rights Track will provide a free web resource with podcasts from leading empirical human rights researchers drawn from my own networks and those of others with a view to sharing motivations, findings, and implications of this research for a wider community of interested people. Podcasts are an excellent medium of communication, which capture the human element of knowledge creation, since we can hear scholars and practitioners in their own words talk about why they do what they do, what they do, and why what they do really matters for the world. I enjoyed making my own podcast series and this project is a natural extension of that work.

Podcasts can be downloaded, saved for later, and revisited while you are at home, on the move, and traveling abroad. And as a form of communication, podcasts are now more popular than ever. Last year, Apple said subscriptions of podcasts through iTunes reached 1 billion. RawVoice, which tracks 20,000 shows, said the number of unique monthly podcast listeners has tripled to 75 million from 25 million five years ago so, in that respect it’s clearly a fantastic platform for reaching a wide and diverse audience. I am thus really pleased to post this blog on international podcast day!

I will host the podcasts and engage with this group of human rights analysts in ways that tease out answers to these key questions on motivation, analysis, and impact of their work. My efforts are joined by former BBC journalist and founder of Research Podcasts Christine Garrington who will produce the podcasts, and web designer Paul Groves who will build the platform for the project and support the hosting of all the content in the most accessible formats possible. The podcasts will start being made available to the public on International Human Rights Day on 10 December 2015.

The project is currently working on developing the web resource (CLICK HERE) and inviting leading analysts to participate. It has its first guests lined up who I will interview this autumn in preparation for our launch in December. I am really excited to bring this new and important resource to the public domain! I hope you join me and tune in!

You can follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Periscope.

IPD-Round-400

The Magic of Wales

ceinws-1

For my transition from my 22 years at the University of Essex to my new role at the University of Nottingham, I spent a much-needed week in Wales with family. I have been coming to Wales since the mid-1990s and it never fails to impress me; however, this visit to mid-Wales, where I have been many times before, gripped me in ways I had not experienced hitherto.

 sunny-mountain-small

We started our week with a home cooked dinner on the deck prepared by our dear family friend with a stunning view of the surrounding trees and mountain. The buddleia were in full bloom, the pine air was fresh, and the mountain had its typical immovable permanence coupled with the changeable contours, grazing sheep, and mesmerizing colours.

We had few plans for the week and allowed the weather to be our guide. As it happened, there was little rain and mild, partly sunny days that afforded us ample time for long walks with the dogs, an afternoon on the beach, a great ride on a restored steam train, a long walk inside a disused mine, and yes a Mexican breakfast in a small mining village just off the A487 called Corris.

corris

We began our week with a mooch about Machynlleth, which is a gateway to the delights of mid Wales with Aberystwyth to the South, Aberdyfi (Aberdovey) to the South West and Dogellau to the North. The serpentine roads take you through the valleys and bring surprises at every turn. Our foray into Mach included a great visit to Ian Snow, a wonderful shop with a mélange of worldly goods ranging from beautiful quilts and throws to incense and small wooden boxes (my magical mind races every time I see all the boxes).

We visited the antique shops, charity shops, and a great bookshop with a careful selection of volumes on politics, poetry, literary fiction, art, photography and philosophy.  I picked up a copy of Adam Ford’s The Art of Mindful Walking, which seemed hugely apt given our daily walks in the valley near our cottage. I also acquired a copy of Philip Ball’s The Devil’s Doctor, which is a great biography of Paracelsus and most suitable for my interest in scholar magicians.

corris-1

valley-1

Our days in the cottage involved gentle mornings of coffee, games and reading (I started the amazing Luminaries by Eleanor Catton). We struck out every morning with our dogs Phoebe and Derek, our beloved rescue dogs from Romania using the back road between Ceinws and Corris with gentle slopes, a canopy of pine trees, and the sound of the rushing river. Ford’s essays about mindful walking remind us to ‘be’ present and to be ‘in’ the present, fully aware of all that we are experiencing in the here and now. The view across the Corris valley is spectacular, with sheep dotting the pastures below, the mountains ever watchful, and the village with its slate dwelling tendrils reaching into the foothills; providing a warm invitation for weary walkers and thirsty dogs.

corris-institute

corris-2

corris-3

Corris is a fascinating place. It is nestled in the valley and site of the 19th century slate trade. The houses are a mix of small slate cottages to more grand affairs, situated along the mountain stream. The Institute is a social meeting place with a post office, second hand bookrack, wainscoted walls, a good sized hall, and photos from the history of Corris. For us, the real gem was Andy and Adam’s Café and Shop. Smallholders and proprietors, Andy and Adam offer a superb café with strong coffee, home made food, and a wide range of foods. The café has transformed Corris and has become the main feature of the village. All the residents and visitors were so friendly and laid back. We enjoyed several mornings there and on our day of departure, we savoured the Mexican breakfast, complete with a dish of baked eggs, mixed vegetables, potatoes, Chorizo, jalapeños, and sour crème and coriander.

corris-4

Corris also has a full working steam train, restored through the dedicated efforts of a network of volunteers.   We took it a few years ago and it was delight to ride the rails again. The volunteers were excellent, and the dogs had a blast. The short seven-minute journey takes you through the valley and then to a new car barn and old engine shed. The team has aspirations to reinstall the track all the way to Machynlleth and operate a new passenger service. We learned about gravity trains and horse drawn trains, as well as the new diesel engine shipped from Germany that is now being made ready for travel.

aberdyfi-1

The Dyfi Valley is extraordinarily beautiful and we made our way to Aberdyfi beach one afternoon. The built up area is great for supplies (and fish and chips), but further along the estuary, you can park, cross the tracks and golf course, and then get to a wonderful wide expanse of sparsely populated beach. It allows dogs and it stretches on for miles. The sea is blue green, and the sand dunes mark out an undulating coastline with the mountains in the distance. The wind blows quite forcefully, but we enjoyed lounging in the sun, making a sand castle and collecting stones and shells. There is a great virtue in slowing down, resting, and contemplating the natural beauty that surrounds us, and this beach did not disappoint. It brought back fond memories of lazy summers at Broadkill Beach Delaware as a child, with its rustic setting, natural surroundings, and hours of fun. We came back to the beach the next day with our dogs and those of our friend, for a brisk walk late in the day, which was magnificent. The contrast between our afternoon of sun and sea, and this rather colder affair was quite marked.

aberdyfi-3

 

aberdyfi-2

Towards the end of the week, we ventured to Llanidloes, which is a fascinating town 19 miles inland from Machynlleth. The journey is steep, treacherous, but simply beautiful. The weather afforded us great views as we traversed the heights of the local landscape. The town itself is buried deep in a valley, as it suddenly springs upon you after what seems quite a long time climbing up steep inclines and then hurtling down through bendy valleys. I felt like this is town that time forgot. The storefronts, facades, and architecture are largely untouched from the middle of the 19th Century. There are great shops, cafes, antique collections, and a wonderful bookshop with whole barn full of second hand books.

llanidloes-1

We topped off the week with home made lasagna in the conservatory with tea lights, beer and wine, and of course, a little mindful magic. For the more pensive and contemplative of us, Wales offers such a magical escape from the bustle of daily working life. The run from January to August had been a brisk one with many challenges and successes at Essex; however, the promise of this magical place kept me focused on completing my tasks and then letting go. The sights and sounds of this little corner of planet earth are simply fantastic. It draws us back each year and always serves up something new. This week was very special as it is a transitional period full of hopes, dreams and new (and as yet unknown) opportunities. It is also a period for reflection on that has been, taking stock of achievements and wonderful experiences. I remain ever so grateful for all the life offers and hugely optimistic for the future.

mexican-1